Oil 2018 is the IEA's annual five-year forecast of global oil demand, supply refining, and trade.

Global oil demand growth remains healthy driven by developing countries in Asia, even as oil consumption growth slows down in China thanks to new environmental policies designed to curb air pollution. Strong growth in petrochemicals demand globally is another key area of growth.

Upstream investments have not rebounded from the historic two-year decline seen in 2015-2016 except in the United States which dominates the supply growth story. Meanwhile, there is uncertainty over the longer-term prospects of the successful OPEC and non-OPEC market management policy.

These strands set the scene for Oil 2018's analysis of the market, which examines a wide range of other important issues and uncertainties, including:

• The implications for oil demand of the 2020 IMO marine fuel regulations.
• The growth of the global petrochemicals sector.
• The rise of electrification in China's transport fleet.
• Decline rates in key oil producing countries.
• Crude quality issues arising from the rapid increase in US production.
• Investment needs in North American takeaway capacity.
• Implications for global refining of the looming capacity surplus.
• Trends in global oil trade.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword Acknowledgements Table of Contents Executive Summary 1. Demand Highlights Summary OECD Demand Americas Europe Asia Oceania Non-OECD Demand Africa Asia (non-OECD) Europe (non-OECD) Former Soviet Union (FSU) Latin America Middle East 2. Supply Highlights Trends in global oil supply Non-OPEC supply overview United States Canada Mexico Brazil Other Latin America North Sea Australia People’s Republic of China Other Asia Russia Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Africa OPEC OPEC gas liquids supply Biofuel supply Ethanol markets regional outlook Biodiesel markets regional outlook 3. Refining and trade Highlights Overview Refining sector outlook Regional developments in refining North America Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East Africa People’s Republic of China India Other Asia Latin America Crude oil trade Product trade LPG/ethane Gasoline/naphtha Diesel/kerosene Fuel oil Physical flows: implications for shipping Developments in marine bunkers Switch to low sulphur fuel oil Switch to diesel On-board scrubbers Switch to alternative fuels Conclusion 4. Trends in global oil storage Highlights Global overview OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa Former Soviet Union Latin America 5. TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF MAPS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF BOXES