China’s manufacturing capabilities and advancements in reducing electrolyzer costs have sparked both hopes and concerns about its potential to dominate global electrolyzer production and exports. This is often compared to China’s success in solar photovoltaics (PV), where dramatic cost reductions and subsequent control over supply chains have established its leadership in the sector. This paper explores whether China can replicate its success in solar with electrolyzers, considering government support, learning rates of PV and electrolyzers, Chinese corporate strategies, and the external environment for exports.