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Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping

카테고리
국외자료
단체저자
NBER
발행기관
NBER
발행년월
2025.03
페이지수
83p
URL
요약
We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%.