1. Outlook on the international oil market
A. Outlook on global oil supply and demand
□ In the June 2010 "Oil Market Report", IEA forecasted that global oil demand in 2010 will reach around 86.44 million b/d, a year-on-year rise of approximately 1.68 million b/d.
- This is an upward adjustment of 40 thousand b/d from the previous month's forecast. Key organizations such as OPEC and EIA estimate that demand will reach around 85.5 million b/d.
- IEA forecasts that there will be a rise compared to the previous year owing to strong oil demand in non-OECD countries such as Asian countries. It made an upward adjustment from the previous month's forecast after incorporating forecasts made by OECD countries on oil demand increase.
□ NGL supply by non-OPEC countries (including Indonesia) and OPEC countries in 2010 is likely to record a year-on-year rise of approximately 810 thousand b/d and 740 thousand b/d to reach around 52.31 million b/d and 5.4 million b/d, respectively.
□ Demand for OPEC oil in 2010 is estimated at 28.7 million b/d, a year-on-year increase of 100 thousand b/d. This is a downward adjustment of 10 b/d from the previous month's outlook.
|
Category |
Year 2008 |
Year 2009 |
Year 2010 |
||||||||
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
4/4 |
Annual average |
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
4/4 |
Annual average |
||
|
OECD |
47.6 |
46.5 |
44.4 |
45.0 |
45.9 |
45.5 |
46.0 |
45.0 |
45.2 |
45.8 |
45.5 |
|
North America |
24.2 |
23.5 |
22.9 |
23.2 |
23.5 |
23.3 |
23.6 |
23.8 |
23.6 |
23.5 |
23.6 |
|
Europe |
15.3 |
14.9 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
14.4 |
14.5 |
14.2 |
13.9 |
14.4 |
14.4 |
14.2 |
|
Asia Pacific |
8.1 |
8.1 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
7.7 |
8.2 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
7.9 |
7.7 |
|
Non OECD |
38.4 |
37.7 |
39.5 |
40.2 |
39.8 |
39.3 |
40.0 |
41.2 |
41.4 |
41.1 |
40.9 |
|
China |
7.9 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
8.8 |
8.9 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
9.4 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.2 |
|
Asia* |
9.6 |
9.9 |
10.0 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
9.9 |
10.1 |
10.2 |
10.0 |
10.3 |
10.2 |
|
World |
86.0 |
84.3 |
83.9 |
85.1 |
85.7 |
84.8 |
86.0 |
86.2 |
86.5 |
87.0 |
86.4 |
Notes: Asia* refers to Asian developing countries with the exception of China
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, June issue
B. International oil price outlook
□ International oil prices (Dubai oil) in 2010 are forecasted to stabilize at around $80 as anticipations towards economic recovery calm down.
-If the global economic growth rate is higher than expected owing to postponement of execution of an exit strategy, such as continuously low interest rates, there is a possibility of a sharp increase after the second quarter.
|
Scenario |
2010 |
||
|
Base oil price |
High oil price |
Low oil price |
|
|
Annual average |
78.00 |
89.83 |
70.13 |
Source: Korea Energy Economics Institute, 2010 oil price outlook, March 2010
- The average of oil prices forecasted by key international organizations for 2010 is around $74 (Dubai oil), a year-on-year rise of 19.5%.
|
Category |
Year 2009 |
Year 2010 |
Year 2011 |
|||||||||
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
4/4 |
Annual average |
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
4/4 |
Annual average |
|||
|
CGES |
Brent(D) |
61.8 |
76.7 |
79.5 |
79.1 |
77.7 |
78.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CERA |
Dubai |
62.25 |
76.53 |
77.13 |
49.83 |
74.00 |
74.37 |
77.50 |
79.17 |
82.00 |
83.67 |
80.58 |
|
Brent(D) |
62.67 |
77.37 |
78.33 |
70.33 |
74.50 |
75.13 |
78.00 |
79.67 |
82.50 |
84.17 |
81.08 |
|
|
WTI |
62.09 |
78.62 |
75.69 |
69.83 |
75.00 |
74.79 |
79.50 |
81.17 |
84.00 |
85.67 |
82.58 |
|
|
EIA |
WTI |
61.66 |
78.64 |
78.01 |
78.00 |
80.33 |
78.75 |
81.00 |
82.00 |
83.00 |
84.00 |
82.50 |
|
PIRA |
Brent |
61.50 |
76.25 |
78.55 |
78.35 |
85.10 |
79.55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WTI |
61.70 |
78.65 |
76.75 |
78.85 |
86.65 |
80.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes: CGES: Centre for Global Energy Studies (London)
CERA: Cambridge Energy Research Associates
EIA: US Energy Information Administration
PIRA: PIRA Energy Group