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Forecasting: an appraisal for policy-makers and planners William Ascher

판사항
Paperback ed
발행사항
Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981
형태사항
xiii, 239 p. : ill. ; 24 cm
서지주기
Includes bibliographical references and index
소장정보
위치등록번호청구기호 / 출력상태반납예정일
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책 소개
Abstract: Forecasting is a new, and still changing field. One of the most important factors in the relationships between method and result is that core assumptions are more important than sophisticated techniques; improved technique does not compensate for faulty assumptions. Forecasting is still an art and one that is difficult to master. The uses of forecasting can be so varied, and applied to so many different disciplines, that it''s worth making the effort. The appraisal of forecasts and the choice of the "most likely" from a group focusing on the same area is also a type of forecasting.