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단행본

In 100 years: leading economists predict the future

발행사항
Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, 2013
형태사항
195 p. ; 24 cm
서지주기
Includes bibliographical references and index
소장정보
위치등록번호청구기호 / 출력상태반납예정일
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책 소개
This pithy and engaging volume shows that economists may be better equipped topredict the future than science fiction writers. Economists' ideas, based on both theory andpractice, reflect their knowledge of the laws of human interactions as well as years ofexperimentation and reflection. Although perhaps not as screenplay-ready as a work of fiction, theseeconomists' predictions are ready for their close-ups. In this book, ten prominent economists --including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates -- offer their ideas about the world of thetwenty-second century. In scenarios that range from the optimistic to the guardedly gloomy, thesethinkers consider such topics as the transformation of work and wages, the continuing increase ininequality, the economic rise of China and India, the endlessly repeating cycle of crisis and(projected) recovery, the benefits of technology, the economic consequences of political extremism,and the long-range effects of climate change. For example, Daren Acemoglu offers a thoughtfuldiscussion of how trends of the last century -- including uneven growth, technological integration,and resource scarcity -- might translate into the next; Robert Shiller provides an innovative viewof future risk management methods using information technology; 2012 Nobelist Alvin Roth projectshis theory of Matching Markets into the next century, focusing on schools, jobs, marriage andfamily, and medicine; Nobelist Robert Solow considers the shift away from remunerated labor, amongother subjects; and Martin Weitzman raises the intriguing but alarming possibility of usinggeoengineering techniques to mitigate the inevitable effects of climate change. In a 1930 essaymentioned by several contributors, "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," JohnMaynard Keynes offered predictions that, read today, range from absolutely correct to spectacularlywrong. This book follows in Keynes's path, hoping, perhaps, to better his average.
목차
1 The world Our Grandchildren Will Inherit 2 Through the Darkness to a Brighter Future 3 The Cone of Uncertainty of the Twenty-First Century's Economic Hurricane 4 Wealth and the Self-Protection society 5 Keynes, His grandchildren, and Ours 6 American Politics and Global Progress in the Twenty-First Century 7 In 100 Years 8 The Risks of the Next Century and Their Managment 9 Stray Thoughts on How it Might Go 10 The Geoengineered Planet