Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Introduction 1. Overview 1.1 What to forecast? 1.2 Why forecast? 1.3 How to forecast? 1.4 Frequently asked questions 2. Business Cycle Analysis 2.1 Monitering the ups and downs 2.2 Collecting economic information 2.3 Business and consumer surveys 2.4 Making sense of the data 2.5 Bridge models 2.6 Final health warning Appendix 2.1 Some useful concepts and tools 3. Real Sector Building Blocks 3.1 Business investment 3.2 Household spending 3.3 Imports and exports 3.4 Employment 3.5 Prices and wages Appendix 3.1 Sectoral forecasting Appendix 3.2 Comodity prices Appendix 3.3. Semi-structural estimation of the NAIRU 4. Financial Sector Dynamics 4.1 Dealing with volatility 4.2 Short-term interest rates 4.3 Long-term interest rates 4.4 Bond prices and yield spreads 4.5 Stock prices 4.6 Real estate prices 4.7 Exchange rates Appendix 4.1 Intergrating the financial stablity perstpective - lessons from the 2007 financial cirsis Appendix 4.2 Technical analysis Appendix 4.3 Country risk analysis 5. Public Finances 5.1 The macroeconomic review 5.2 The detailed approach 5.3 Long-run fiscal trends 5.4 Fiscal policy analysis 5.5 Forecasting performance Appendix 5.1 Fiscal implications for financial sector rescues Appendix 5.2 The fiscal response to the 2007 financial crisis 6. Medium-and Long-Run Projections 6.1 The medium run 6.2 The long run 7. Risk and Accuracy 7.1 Conceptual issues 7.2 Analysing errors 7.3 Forecaster's track record 7.4 What causes errors? 7.5 Can accuracy be improved? 7.6 Accuracy is not enough - assessing the risks around forecasts Appendix 7.1 Measuring accuracy in practive Appendix 7.2 Can forecasters predict severe crises? Recent lessons 8. Policy Making and Forecasts 8.1 Economic forecasts' virues and limitations 8.2 Forecasts and macroeconomic policy 8.3 Private sector uses 8.4 Explaining the techniclities 8.5 Transparency 8.6 Science or Politics? Appendix 8.1 A world tour of the forecasting institutions Epilogue Annex Ⅰ. The data Annex Ⅱ. Time series methods Annex Ⅲ. Macroeconomic models Bibliography Index