In 2023, global refining capacity was estimated at 103.5 million barrels per day (b/d)1. With recent structural changes to world petroleum markets in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, there is increased interest in how much refinery capacity may enter service within the next few years to meet rising demand. This analysis looks at several major refinery investments with plans to enter service through 2028, their collective refined product output, and their meaning for global crude oil and refined product trade. The bulk of planned growth in refined product output is in the Asia-Pacific (mostly China and India) and the Middle East. We estimate that between 2.6 million barrels b/d and 4.9 million b/d of refining capacity will come online over 2024–28.