following the upcoming U.S. elections, the EU should prioritize defending the multilateral trade system, as a collapse in global economic cooperation could impact Europe up to four times more than direct U.S. tariffs alone. Potential U.S. trade policies under either a Harris or second Trump administration are expected to remain protectionist, though Harris would likely adopt a more multilateral stance, while Trump could intensify tariffs and weaken the WTO’s role. If the U.S. imposes broad tariffs—such as a 10% surcharge on imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods—global trade could shrink by 2.5% initially, with greater contractions if trade partners retaliate. While some EU sectors, like high-tech, may see short-term output gains due to relative competitiveness, EU GDP would still decline, with Germany facing GDP losses of up to €6 billion and significant impacts in key sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals.