Following the latest OPEC+ decision and assuming full compliance, our model projects a fairly balanced oil market in 2025. But as 2024 has shown, the uncertainty around oil market balances is wide due to both demand and supply factors, with unpredictable geopolitical drivers set to rise in 2025. And rather than price level or market share considerations, it is full compliance and compensation for historical overproduction that will remain the key focus for OPEC+ in 2025 and 2026. These criteria are essential for the group’s cohesion and for the agreement to have its desired effects on market balances and shaping market expectations. Achieving these criteria will also provide OPEC+ with more flexibility to navigate the current market uncertainties.