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Trade Effects of Carbon Pricing Policies

카테고리
국외자료
개인저자
Antonia Kurz, Stela Rub
단체저자
WTO
발행기관
WTO
발행년월
2024.12
페이지수
49p
URL
요약
In the first step, we use a fixed-effects gravity model of trade to estimate the export capabilities that determine the pattern of comparative advantage. In the second step, we regress the change in export capability of a country in an industry on the change in the country’s carbon pricing policy, interacted with the carbon intensity of the industry, controlling for country and industry fixed effects. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in carbon price is associated with a decline in export capability in the most carbon-intensive industry by 0.3% to 0.7%. On the other hand, industries with low carbon intensity are barely affected. Overall, we estimate that changes in all the policy instruments combined can explain up to 1.2% of the changes in export capabilities in the periods 2012-2015 and 2015-2018.