The adoption of hydrogen in steelmaking presents a significant opportunity to decarbonise the industry, potentially reducing emissions by up to 90% compared to traditional methods. However, the glut of overcapacity undermines the transition to hydrogen-based solutions, limiting investment and delaying progress. This paper explores the prospects for hydrogen-based steelmaking in a low-carbon future, set against a backdrop of overcapacity and market distortions, highlighting how these challenges compound to the inherent difficulties of deploying such solutions.